Tajikistan’s Budget to Grow by 23% — But What Will the Public Gain?

The government of Tajikistan projects budget revenue of 80.1 billion somoni for 2027. This is 15.1 billion somoni, or 23.2%, higher than the approved figure for 2026. However, an increase in government revenue does not necessarily mean that households’ living standards will improve at the same pace.

According to official information published on October 29, the draft budget was reviewed at a government meeting and approved for submission to the lower house of parliament, the Majlisi Namoyandagon. It has not yet been adopted into law.

A total of 36.7 billion somoni, or 44.8% of projected expenditure, has been allocated to the social sector. Budget revenue is forecast to reach 90.2 billion somoni in 2028 and 104.6 billion somoni in 2029. President Emomali Rahmon has instructed government agencies to broaden the tax base, reduce tax arrears and promote domestic production.

These figures are projections, not results. The official announcement provides no detailed breakdown of social spending, the impact of rising prices or the contribution of individual revenue sources. As a result, it remains unclear to what extent the larger budget will translate into better healthcare, education and social protection.

The overall budget figure alone is not enough to assess the proposal. Parliament should explain where the additional revenue will come from and how it will be spent. Broadening the tax base can result from increased economic activity or more effective tax collection. It does not necessarily imply an increase in tax rates.

The real test at the end of the year will not be the number of billions recorded in government accounts. What matters is whether people experience tangible improvements in healthcare, education and their everyday lives. A larger budget becomes a genuine public achievement only when spending is transparent and its outcomes can be independently assessed.